* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 46 50 50 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 46 50 50 48 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 38 39 41 39 SHEAR (KT) 4 11 11 9 10 16 16 18 10 15 17 26 24 SHEAR DIR 192 186 177 176 146 147 144 151 168 161 208 207 235 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 127 126 122 121 120 120 120 122 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 123 123 121 117 115 115 114 113 115 118 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 60 62 64 57 60 57 63 59 57 53 47 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 10 11 9 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 31 51 63 68 94 82 64 28 13 -5 -24 -46 200 MB DIV 20 40 47 23 11 44 50 63 31 11 -8 -4 9 LAND (KM) 1247 1360 1472 1595 1718 1965 1921 1781 1674 1596 1574 1583 1520 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.1 30.2 31.2 32.4 33.5 35.8 37.9 40.1 42.4 44.5 46.5 48.5 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 8 7 5 3 10 12 12 17 24 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 21. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)