* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 38 41 39 41 39 36 38 38 38 33 26 23 18 SHEAR DIR 266 275 276 277 283 277 283 290 293 286 292 321 21 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 121 123 124 127 129 130 131 133 136 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 35 31 30 33 35 39 38 36 38 44 50 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -15 -18 -9 -2 -7 -6 -9 -7 -18 -10 -36 -48 200 MB DIV -38 -46 -37 -49 -32 -18 -19 -7 -31 -19 -55 -43 -51 LAND (KM) 191 123 53 7 38 67 145 320 495 678 875 1075 1267 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 153.6 154.6 155.5 156.5 157.4 159.3 161.1 162.9 164.6 166.3 168.1 169.9 171.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 7 7 14 13 11 15 19 20 19 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -18. -26. -32. -35. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -25. -32. -37. -41. -42. -41. -40. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY