* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 56 64 69 71 70 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 56 64 69 71 70 69 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 57 64 68 70 69 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 5 8 7 10 9 5 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 64 122 105 125 142 118 72 75 60 65 303 16 238 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.3 26.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 153 152 150 148 147 144 139 138 130 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 79 76 76 75 74 73 71 70 67 69 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 13 12 17 31 32 31 44 43 60 79 68 200 MB DIV 88 81 79 87 91 77 48 32 2 26 17 21 18 LAND (KM) 1000 1029 1063 1121 1189 1234 1310 1402 1506 1646 1803 1982 2205 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.4 113.5 115.7 117.9 120.2 122.6 125.1 127.8 130.7 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 39 37 36 46 46 36 22 12 19 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 31. 39. 44. 46. 45. 44. 42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY