* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 41 46 49 51 49 47 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 41 46 49 51 49 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 36 39 41 44 44 43 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 17 17 15 17 10 11 8 20 24 26 SHEAR DIR 182 136 125 119 113 116 125 166 193 216 223 255 239 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 123 121 122 121 121 124 130 135 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 121 120 119 117 118 116 116 119 125 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 64 61 63 62 58 61 62 57 57 53 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 63 73 70 90 103 84 77 66 43 22 2 -29 -58 200 MB DIV 34 13 7 34 72 31 29 32 28 -1 -3 13 1 LAND (KM) 1461 1579 1697 1820 1944 1892 1718 1589 1496 1469 1438 1328 1088 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.7 20.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.1 32.2 33.3 34.5 35.6 38.0 40.4 42.9 45.4 47.9 50.4 53.2 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 5 5 10 12 15 24 40 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 24. 22. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)