* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 54 57 62 61 56 53 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 54 57 62 61 56 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 50 54 58 59 57 53 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 17 17 15 14 7 10 13 26 26 35 SHEAR DIR 150 119 120 109 121 101 132 158 212 211 246 252 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 124 123 123 120 121 122 128 134 138 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 121 119 119 119 116 116 118 126 130 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 60 62 60 61 62 55 50 48 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 13 14 14 12 12 10 11 11 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 73 66 81 92 89 67 71 54 48 31 -4 -29 -69 200 MB DIV 17 1 27 67 71 76 44 41 28 -21 0 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1547 1666 1784 1897 1989 1820 1660 1557 1491 1470 1328 1139 1000 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.5 21.0 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.0 34.1 35.2 36.2 38.7 41.2 43.5 46.0 49.0 52.5 55.2 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 14 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 11 15 28 45 45 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 32. 31. 26. 23. 17. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)