* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 44 41 38 43 46 38 44 40 39 39 37 37 29 SHEAR DIR 278 281 276 280 284 282 291 294 295 284 273 240 230 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 117 117 117 117 118 118 118 118 120 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 36 38 38 42 42 42 44 42 45 43 48 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 7 6 7 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -8 -1 -3 -19 -23 -32 -17 -20 -14 -24 -30 200 MB DIV -34 -11 -8 -29 -20 -1 -25 -5 -10 11 -3 -10 -29 LAND (KM) 41 31 20 15 10 15 21 44 59 66 95 123 190 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.6 22.0 22.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 155.6 155.7 155.8 155.9 155.9 155.9 156.1 156.3 156.5 156.7 157.1 157.8 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 4 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -20. -29. -36. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -26. -33. -39. -41. -42. -41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY