* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 47 50 55 59 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 47 50 55 59 63 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 39 41 44 49 55 61 66 69 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 12 9 10 5 15 15 16 15 16 14 SHEAR DIR 97 130 143 149 154 172 80 100 77 102 113 118 112 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 142 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 65 61 61 61 64 59 56 55 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 68 73 64 56 49 56 65 84 88 82 65 200 MB DIV 10 17 17 31 27 -5 17 36 32 71 80 65 46 LAND (KM) 2378 2326 2231 2137 2044 1907 1780 1642 1502 1384 1297 1163 1020 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.7 134.7 135.7 136.7 138.3 139.7 141.2 142.7 144.0 145.0 146.6 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 34 32 31 16 18 26 29 33 29 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 20. 25. 29. 33. 34. 35. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY