* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102009 08/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 54 59 57 54 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 54 59 57 54 49 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 44 46 49 49 48 45 43 40 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 6 6 6 1 11 7 12 13 17 14 SHEAR DIR 93 110 119 126 106 109 203 206 232 203 205 206 211 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 139 137 133 131 125 120 117 113 114 118 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 70 71 67 63 64 59 59 54 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 10 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 37 35 46 62 61 82 77 74 53 30 24 200 MB DIV 68 57 43 35 20 21 0 37 34 16 39 6 -14 LAND (KM) 1101 1163 1203 1280 1367 1576 1726 1914 2125 2021 1714 1397 1070 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.4 119.6 121.0 122.3 125.2 127.7 130.3 132.9 135.6 138.5 141.5 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 26 8 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 24. 29. 27. 24. 19. 16. 12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 TEN 08/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 TEN 08/12/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY