* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/13/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 46 47 48 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 46 47 48 47 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38 41 43 46 47 47 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 19 18 11 16 6 10 11 18 26 25 SHEAR DIR 104 94 97 112 132 143 166 208 222 269 250 283 276 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 124 124 122 122 125 131 138 145 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 120 120 120 118 119 123 131 137 142 139 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 59 60 62 59 53 49 48 51 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 99 90 81 73 77 73 43 48 33 8 -17 -57 -80 200 MB DIV 43 54 38 38 34 10 30 -19 -28 -29 -5 15 -6 LAND (KM) 1947 1917 1839 1742 1648 1486 1368 1269 1227 1054 870 672 647 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.9 20.0 22.0 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.8 37.8 39.0 40.1 42.6 45.0 47.9 51.2 54.5 57.6 60.6 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 15 17 18 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 11 33 45 54 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY