* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 48 60 72 79 84 89 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 48 60 72 79 84 89 93 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 39 48 58 67 74 81 85 SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 12 8 6 5 9 10 8 12 13 16 SHEAR DIR 100 85 79 45 54 61 56 55 34 355 38 9 1 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 135 132 134 132 133 130 132 138 141 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 139 137 134 138 136 139 134 133 138 138 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.8 -51.2 -52.2 -51.3 -52.2 -51.4 -52.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 78 75 72 73 69 66 58 57 60 59 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 18 20 22 23 25 27 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 55 45 38 38 42 66 68 71 69 71 73 78 72 200 MB DIV 110 126 98 83 94 95 78 33 -6 38 45 52 76 LAND (KM) 708 832 956 1110 1267 1605 1791 1557 1248 988 793 709 773 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.6 25.9 27.5 29.0 32.2 35.9 39.9 43.7 46.9 49.5 51.3 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 15 17 19 19 17 14 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 9 7 6 9 8 9 12 24 30 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 23. 35. 47. 54. 59. 64. 68. 73. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)