* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 42 52 59 67 73 78 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 42 52 59 67 73 78 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 44 51 60 69 78 85 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 5 10 13 16 20 17 14 14 17 19 SHEAR DIR 140 144 138 107 63 67 70 71 67 76 75 80 72 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 68 70 71 67 64 63 64 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 53 53 47 32 28 27 26 34 19 22 33 200 MB DIV -10 -14 -9 2 -1 38 39 41 76 106 93 123 118 LAND (KM) 2181 2105 2031 1971 1913 1822 1800 1792 1764 1748 1741 1749 1796 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 11.8 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.9 137.8 138.6 139.4 140.6 141.3 141.9 142.6 143.0 143.3 143.4 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 29 28 35 37 38 43 49 58 64 68 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 27. 34. 42. 48. 53. 56. 58. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY