* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 59 70 78 82 89 94 98 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 59 70 78 82 89 94 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 36 43 51 59 66 73 79 84 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 6 8 13 11 12 9 10 10 2 SHEAR DIR 75 51 72 59 24 42 47 49 28 36 356 26 127 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 132 134 133 134 134 129 131 134 136 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 135 135 138 138 140 138 130 130 133 136 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.1 -52.0 -51.1 -52.2 -50.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 75 72 68 66 61 62 64 66 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 19 20 23 24 24 27 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 41 53 65 79 92 78 72 68 79 71 60 200 MB DIV 69 51 75 86 104 77 51 17 26 59 52 72 31 LAND (KM) 881 1012 1149 1316 1484 1784 1647 1321 1091 955 912 964 799 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.4 13.1 14.6 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.4 27.8 29.4 31.0 34.8 38.6 42.3 45.5 48.1 50.4 53.0 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 16 17 19 19 17 14 13 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 7 8 9 11 13 19 25 27 40 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 23. 34. 45. 53. 57. 64. 69. 73. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)