* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 43 47 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 43 47 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 41 44 47 50 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 6 5 10 9 15 11 10 11 15 16 SHEAR DIR 130 109 147 153 167 217 270 232 284 240 278 234 257 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 121 122 127 134 142 145 143 146 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 115 116 118 125 133 141 143 139 140 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 62 60 59 54 52 48 47 45 47 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 67 73 66 58 39 24 3 -15 -46 -58 -87 -108 200 MB DIV 15 1 10 13 0 9 -23 -26 10 -17 -9 -49 -8 LAND (KM) 1575 1532 1492 1436 1390 1342 1197 1022 663 368 277 230 249 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.7 43.7 44.9 46.1 48.9 52.3 55.8 59.5 62.9 66.2 69.3 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 15 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 6 19 33 49 55 47 51 49 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY