* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 49 54 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 49 54 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 43 47 50 53 56 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 15 14 12 13 9 7 3 5 10 6 SHEAR DIR 75 61 53 59 80 77 94 108 123 350 360 23 75 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 147 147 146 144 141 138 138 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 62 64 67 69 70 67 65 61 60 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 41 30 30 39 54 42 38 23 29 19 34 42 51 200 MB DIV 39 14 17 28 45 41 39 23 39 25 21 22 34 LAND (KM) 1889 1864 1840 1820 1800 1761 1696 1605 1493 1372 1210 1045 892 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.6 139.9 140.2 140.4 140.5 140.6 140.8 141.3 142.1 143.2 144.8 146.6 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 37 36 36 34 25 19 26 21 16 18 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 20. 24. 29. 34. 35. 37. 39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/15/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY