* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 94 88 73 60 50 40 31 24 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 94 88 73 60 50 40 31 24 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 100 95 89 82 70 60 52 45 39 34 29 25 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 8 7 12 19 24 25 31 32 42 30 26 SHEAR DIR 238 272 269 257 241 234 221 221 212 194 196 186 197 SST (C) 25.5 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 114 112 110 106 108 109 108 110 114 116 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 60 58 57 57 56 49 44 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 8 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 100 107 112 94 78 47 55 17 4 -22 -38 200 MB DIV 27 15 24 39 34 28 29 32 30 19 10 28 -3 LAND (KM) 1951 2054 2161 2054 1916 1642 1374 1119 911 726 565 512 521 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.4 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.6 133.9 135.2 136.5 139.1 141.7 144.3 146.7 149.3 152.1 154.8 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -24. -33. -41. -47. -51. -53. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -6. -12. -27. -40. -50. -60. -69. -76. -84. -88. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY