* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 47 53 59 62 62 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 47 53 59 62 62 62 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 45 50 58 65 71 72 74 78 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 6 5 4 5 7 14 15 12 12 SHEAR DIR 193 186 194 231 261 202 323 192 260 231 268 243 278 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 132 135 138 144 144 147 145 146 149 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 133 137 141 145 144 146 142 139 140 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 53 51 49 48 44 48 45 50 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 43 37 30 15 0 -22 -38 -79 -105 -85 -111 200 MB DIV -21 -26 -9 8 -4 -5 17 -8 23 -12 -5 -12 4 LAND (KM) 1164 1111 1063 1034 887 682 471 77 107 177 276 326 53 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.4 23.0 24.8 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 49.2 50.7 52.5 54.3 58.0 61.4 65.0 68.4 71.5 74.0 76.8 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 17 18 18 17 15 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 19 29 40 46 58 48 32 54 11 62 79 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 27. 27. 27. 29. 31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY