* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 52 57 60 62 65 67 70 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 52 57 60 62 65 67 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 41 46 53 61 67 70 74 64 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 5 0 5 3 6 8 14 7 11 1 SHEAR DIR 173 196 226 262 230 282 52 245 216 227 220 249 170 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 138 142 144 145 146 146 147 153 168 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 137 141 146 147 146 144 140 140 145 159 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 51 49 52 50 48 48 49 45 46 47 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 47 38 35 19 8 -22 -40 -71 -84 -93 -94 200 MB DIV -20 -6 14 12 10 0 20 4 1 -1 8 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1098 1047 1022 870 744 633 215 56 28 144 183 212 4 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.6 17.9 19.0 20.0 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.9 52.5 54.4 56.2 60.0 63.7 67.3 70.4 73.2 75.6 78.4 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 19 18 17 15 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 29 38 46 53 54 59 58 11 58 58 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 35. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY