* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 43 51 56 60 62 64 67 70 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 43 51 52 37 40 42 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 40 45 47 35 38 41 44 49 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 7 2 7 10 4 9 15 16 14 11 10 SHEAR DIR 206 224 243 215 217 341 199 261 225 260 244 295 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.4 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 138 141 144 144 147 146 147 152 161 172 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 140 143 145 146 147 144 143 148 155 163 164 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 47 44 46 43 46 45 46 46 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 42 36 29 4 -5 -20 -37 -79 -93 -90 -90 200 MB DIV -16 -8 -4 9 16 17 -12 6 -5 -5 -15 13 -10 LAND (KM) 1031 1015 881 752 657 517 107 8 -55 27 66 88 189 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.7 18.6 19.3 20.5 22.4 23.8 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 52.4 54.1 55.9 57.6 61.2 64.9 68.3 71.4 74.4 77.4 80.4 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 16 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 28 38 47 51 60 10 57 47 74 13 64 97 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 32. 35. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY