* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 78 70 63 50 44 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 87 78 70 63 50 44 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 86 79 72 66 56 48 42 37 33 29 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 5 11 16 19 18 24 29 25 34 34 37 40 39 SHEAR DIR 253 243 249 248 244 233 232 222 194 187 181 180 169 SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 106 104 105 107 107 107 111 114 118 123 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 57 62 59 58 53 51 47 48 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 9 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 102 107 94 85 90 66 62 34 25 -11 -24 -37 -61 200 MB DIV 26 25 1 8 15 38 44 48 38 10 14 17 5 LAND (KM) 2042 1915 1788 1653 1521 1267 1054 864 724 648 647 700 900 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 24.9 26.1 27.2 28.5 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 135.3 136.5 137.7 139.0 140.3 142.9 145.3 147.9 150.5 153.2 155.9 159.0 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -40. -45. -48. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -22. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -2. -1. -5. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -32. -45. -51. -57. -62. -73. -82. -87. -93. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY