* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 08/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 53 56 58 58 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 12 16 13 16 13 18 20 23 15 12 SHEAR DIR 316 332 290 306 323 300 303 271 273 276 313 257 276 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.7 27.8 26.8 25.7 25.5 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 167 161 153 145 131 119 111 111 108 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 153 145 138 128 119 108 99 94 98 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -53.9 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 12 10 11 9 11 8 12 9 11 6 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 53 50 51 49 53 49 51 47 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -90 -73 -77 -109 -96 -122 -91 -144 -90 -70 -48 -25 200 MB DIV 1 -5 12 1 -4 -4 -5 16 8 14 54 27 61 LAND (KM) 96 143 149 77 81 -24 -100 -211 -287 -394 -555 -468 -112 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.7 30.7 31.5 32.3 33.0 34.2 35.5 37.3 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.3 85.0 85.7 86.4 87.7 88.5 89.3 89.4 88.7 86.1 81.7 76.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 10 16 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 30 29 19 16 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. 31. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 08/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED