* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 57 50 44 40 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 66 57 50 44 40 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 62 56 52 44 37 31 26 21 18 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 26 30 29 36 37 46 42 30 12 5 7 SHEAR DIR 257 251 252 254 243 221 197 193 182 187 180 26 49 SST (C) 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 26.0 25.7 24.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 107 108 108 109 112 115 120 127 123 110 82 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 58 56 57 52 50 48 46 53 50 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 16 13 12 11 9 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 88 85 82 71 56 55 25 -10 -29 -54 -79 -107 -143 200 MB DIV 14 8 9 31 42 59 20 -6 11 5 17 -26 8 LAND (KM) 1632 1492 1356 1219 1088 847 710 648 691 844 1172 1470 1798 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.8 29.8 32.1 33.9 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.2 140.6 141.9 143.3 144.7 147.7 150.5 153.4 156.3 159.8 163.7 166.6 168.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 17 19 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -27. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -31. -36. -37. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -31. -35. -44. -52. -59. -65. -68. -71. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY