* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 95 97 99 104 103 105 104 105 102 99 91 V (KT) LAND 90 92 95 97 99 104 103 105 104 105 102 99 91 V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 94 96 98 101 102 100 98 97 94 87 79 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 12 13 8 11 10 12 15 10 10 18 SHEAR DIR 17 47 36 12 360 345 322 280 286 242 217 153 167 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.7 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 138 141 147 148 149 151 158 149 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 133 134 137 141 139 140 141 146 133 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -49.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 62 64 61 63 63 59 56 51 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 25 25 29 28 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 68 70 80 83 84 92 67 75 70 56 32 65 94 200 MB DIV 55 69 56 56 60 87 38 76 42 29 43 31 33 LAND (KM) 1171 1178 1095 1040 1008 842 681 633 738 953 884 724 622 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.0 19.6 21.1 22.9 25.0 27.7 31.0 34.0 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.6 52.8 54.1 55.3 57.8 59.9 62.1 64.5 66.5 68.0 68.2 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 15 16 17 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 38 43 47 65 38 41 36 31 18 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 13. 15. 14. 15. 12. 9. 1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY