* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 39 39 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 39 39 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 37 35 32 29 28 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 56 55 50 36 18 4 19 27 29 35 29 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 204 198 191 170 43 25 21 17 6 6 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 122 125 127 127 125 127 129 132 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.7 -55.3 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.0 -56.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 52 50 51 51 56 47 51 51 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 9 10 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -30 -43 -52 -52 -43 -51 -59 -72 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 19 -10 1 12 2 -7 -17 -15 -28 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 852 850 889 875 878 952 1114 1239 1359 1543 1784 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.7 31.5 31.5 31.1 30.8 30.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.4 152.1 153.7 155.5 157.3 160.8 163.8 166.5 169.0 171.8 174.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 14 13 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -10. -18. -26. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -11. -19. -30. -38. -42. -43. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY