* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 118 121 121 118 113 109 103 101 87 67 V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 118 121 121 118 113 109 103 101 87 56 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 112 110 108 106 105 102 92 84 76 63 41 SHEAR (KT) 5 12 8 7 1 13 11 18 0 6 6 40 89 SHEAR DIR 297 240 262 289 357 265 177 260 12 181 223 222 229 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.8 27.4 27.6 22.9 18.6 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 149 149 150 157 151 131 134 96 81 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 143 142 140 141 145 135 115 117 87 76 71 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -49.9 -50.3 -48.6 -49.1 -47.5 -48.3 -47.7 -47.6 -45.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 62 63 58 64 60 64 64 62 53 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 29 30 32 35 34 36 37 36 41 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 75 71 74 54 64 5 39 17 63 101 191 200 MB DIV 117 91 89 65 97 21 154 5 142 47 114 63 22 LAND (KM) 932 814 719 648 618 730 975 920 682 561 322 45 12 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.8 24.9 27.8 30.8 33.7 37.0 40.6 44.9 49.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 58.2 59.5 60.9 62.2 64.4 66.2 67.7 68.8 68.0 65.3 60.8 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 18 24 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 68 59 47 42 48 39 39 22 11 28 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -20. -30. -39. -45. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 3. -2. -6. -12. -14. -28. -48. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY