* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 118 121 122 121 122 113 108 103 91 76 64 V (KT) LAND 115 115 118 121 122 121 122 113 108 103 91 52 46 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 112 110 109 107 105 99 90 82 65 42 41 SHEAR (KT) 11 3 5 3 6 12 5 12 8 11 29 77 74 SHEAR DIR 251 246 304 206 227 242 258 300 220 177 213 226 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.0 27.6 24.3 17.8 14.4 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 149 155 156 139 134 105 80 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 143 140 139 144 142 123 118 95 76 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -49.6 -50.1 -50.2 -48.5 -48.6 -47.5 -47.9 -47.4 -46.1 -43.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 62 59 61 59 64 65 64 56 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 31 33 32 34 36 35 35 38 37 37 43 850 MB ENV VOR 80 77 76 80 72 60 39 16 53 63 117 114 174 200 MB DIV 101 99 84 117 98 59 95 37 129 64 93 61 45 LAND (KM) 814 712 646 638 663 879 1047 763 623 355 30 -22 710 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.0 26.5 29.3 32.4 35.7 39.7 44.4 49.1 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.6 61.0 62.3 63.5 65.5 67.4 68.5 68.9 67.1 63.0 55.4 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 18 25 32 37 39 HEAT CONTENT 59 47 43 48 41 43 27 16 23 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -31. -41. -49. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 7. 6. 7. -2. -7. -12. -24. -39. -51. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY