* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 111 113 115 115 109 103 99 88 70 55 37 V (KT) LAND 110 109 111 113 115 115 109 103 99 88 65 50 31 V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 105 104 104 102 95 89 73 60 51 47 43 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 4 6 7 10 9 4 11 33 61 73 48 SHEAR DIR 226 200 191 241 254 275 239 227 226 238 239 247 265 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.7 27.4 26.7 18.5 17.7 12.7 11.6 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 152 156 157 149 132 125 81 80 75 74 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 142 144 145 134 118 113 76 76 73 72 73 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -49.5 -49.2 -48.4 -48.5 -47.8 -48.5 -45.6 -43.8 -43.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 62 63 57 65 65 66 54 37 40 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 33 33 34 36 35 33 39 39 33 33 26 850 MB ENV VOR 84 78 58 54 50 -5 47 27 50 28 137 241 294 200 MB DIV 147 114 57 41 86 -20 98 58 134 44 32 26 26 LAND (KM) 630 669 749 861 971 859 598 431 125 125 375 1326 758 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.6 28.0 30.9 34.1 38.2 42.7 46.5 49.4 53.0 56.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.9 65.2 66.1 66.9 68.4 69.6 68.2 64.4 57.5 48.0 35.4 20.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 24 28 33 39 45 45 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 45 42 38 23 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -11. -22. -35. -45. -52. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 7. 9. 10. 6. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. -24. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 4. 3. -1. -1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. -1. -7. -11. -22. -40. -55. -73. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY