* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 08/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 46 48 51 52 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 46 48 51 52 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 38 40 41 43 45 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 9 11 15 18 22 13 15 19 15 13 SHEAR DIR 66 77 89 78 52 42 52 73 78 76 75 86 92 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 140 138 138 137 135 135 135 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 59 60 60 57 54 52 55 51 53 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 5 14 17 14 25 25 40 33 39 27 35 200 MB DIV 7 21 39 48 34 38 3 11 31 12 47 26 24 LAND (KM) 2056 1976 1897 1803 1710 1544 1362 1192 1038 897 772 652 543 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.3 138.0 138.9 139.7 141.2 142.9 144.5 146.0 147.5 149.0 150.5 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 22 14 16 14 13 14 16 13 12 13 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 20. 21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY