* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 76 74 64 48 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 76 74 53 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 72 65 59 46 43 39 34 30 28 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 19 22 35 66 76 73 53 28 24 12 SHEAR DIR 199 207 210 236 220 237 258 274 284 273 238 216 164 SST (C) 27.6 26.4 21.5 17.8 18.0 15.5 14.1 13.4 15.0 14.8 12.9 11.9 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 123 89 78 80 77 76 75 75 73 70 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 110 82 74 75 74 74 73 72 70 67 61 61 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -50.2 -50.3 -49.5 -49.9 -47.9 -47.0 -47.8 -47.7 -45.4 -45.4 -45.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 68 71 68 66 57 46 43 51 59 77 77 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 33 35 36 33 30 25 26 19 12 16 26 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 18 7 16 -13 99 123 142 129 151 176 168 200 MB DIV 84 102 76 84 105 24 23 3 39 21 44 31 38 LAND (KM) 606 406 239 96 29 -63 732 1397 539 135 358 548 503 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 38.4 40.8 42.7 44.5 48.0 51.2 52.2 52.6 55.3 61.2 63.4 63.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.9 68.4 67.8 65.3 62.7 54.9 43.6 30.8 18.2 10.6 8.5 6.3 3.9 STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 25 26 29 36 40 39 31 25 21 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):347/ 20 CX,CY: -3/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -6. -10. -18. -26. -33. -38. -43. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -8. -14. -19. -16. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -16. -32. -49. -62. -76. -85. -87. -87. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY