* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112009 08/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 47 53 58 57 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 47 53 58 57 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 45 48 50 53 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 12 13 14 16 10 11 14 8 11 11 SHEAR DIR 62 84 79 54 55 58 57 73 62 76 70 83 103 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 59 59 62 58 56 53 49 49 51 47 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 8 10 7 23 24 38 33 33 26 28 35 200 MB DIV 20 36 37 29 14 7 0 17 39 17 10 12 26 LAND (KM) 1975 1896 1817 1731 1646 1460 1275 1114 966 828 706 615 534 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.1 138.8 139.6 140.3 142.0 143.7 145.2 146.7 148.2 149.7 150.9 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 16 15 14 14 15 15 11 12 13 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 23. 28. 27. 30. 31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 ELEVEN 08/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 ELEVEN 08/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY