* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 43 51 55 57 55 51 45 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 43 51 55 57 55 51 45 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 42 42 38 32 26 SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 17 19 13 14 12 13 15 18 32 28 SHEAR DIR 8 27 40 43 41 38 23 9 341 306 293 262 274 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.0 26.5 25.0 23.3 22.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 162 161 158 154 145 130 115 97 85 80 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 77 75 78 74 72 72 69 66 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -14 -4 12 38 52 63 56 59 21 -2 -61 200 MB DIV 54 66 66 50 62 58 29 28 20 14 26 20 1 LAND (KM) 679 707 733 765 817 866 882 947 1013 1121 1207 1324 1318 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.3 22.1 24.1 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.6 108.7 109.8 110.9 112.9 115.0 117.2 119.7 122.4 125.2 127.6 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 69 61 51 45 53 11 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 29. 30. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 18. 26. 30. 32. 30. 26. 20. 12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY