* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 56 63 67 71 74 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 56 63 67 71 74 75 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 45 50 56 61 65 69 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 10 5 5 4 3 5 1 4 6 9 SHEAR DIR 71 52 72 90 86 139 126 65 119 344 57 27 354 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 149 146 143 140 137 137 136 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -51.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 57 58 58 56 57 54 52 53 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 27 20 25 42 46 60 51 19 12 11 26 31 200 MB DIV 61 66 69 90 90 83 75 46 48 9 19 17 9 LAND (KM) 975 922 877 850 833 806 814 850 902 924 945 1006 1093 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 152.1 153.0 153.8 154.7 155.6 157.6 159.5 161.1 162.5 163.5 164.3 165.2 166.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 56 54 53 55 59 50 19 43 47 54 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 31. 38. 42. 46. 49. 50. 49. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY