* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 30 36 43 49 52 56 61 66 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 30 36 43 49 52 56 61 66 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 24 27 31 35 39 45 53 SHEAR (KT) 26 22 20 17 16 7 13 14 20 10 12 2 0 SHEAR DIR 257 276 269 273 281 250 328 356 356 352 347 286 203 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 145 144 146 147 150 150 149 149 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 143 143 140 137 135 133 130 126 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 59 61 59 59 57 56 54 51 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -1 -11 -22 -32 -45 -46 -37 -30 -12 -27 -31 -44 200 MB DIV 21 52 66 58 50 8 5 0 15 -10 1 5 16 LAND (KM) 832 822 675 529 426 450 587 659 757 848 889 874 790 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.4 22.3 23.9 25.4 26.5 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.7 59.3 60.8 62.3 64.5 66.4 68.1 69.4 70.2 70.7 71.3 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 13 11 9 7 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 63 61 71 65 60 55 59 50 38 40 39 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 29. 32. 36. 41. 46. 52. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY