* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/25/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 51 50 45 38 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 51 50 45 38 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 42 39 35 30 25 22 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 2 4 3 7 9 11 9 11 20 22 28 SHEAR DIR 51 45 72 92 21 345 269 271 274 279 271 287 299 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 25.3 23.7 22.6 22.2 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 133 130 117 100 88 84 81 80 82 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 76 76 71 72 65 58 50 47 39 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 13 11 9 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 47 53 47 23 5 -21 -21 -42 -50 -46 -34 200 MB DIV 62 57 58 55 35 9 44 14 3 -20 -13 -3 -18 LAND (KM) 967 1001 1044 1082 1127 1145 1162 1224 1259 1263 1327 1439 1507 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.7 22.4 24.0 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.2 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.9 119.8 120.7 121.5 123.2 124.9 126.5 128.1 129.8 131.7 133.5 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 15. 10. 3. -6. -15. -21. -27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY