* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 53 60 67 68 69 73 72 69 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 53 60 67 68 69 73 72 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 52 59 66 70 70 67 63 54 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 6 9 1 6 20 26 27 34 38 57 SHEAR DIR 328 354 1 337 14 352 206 197 215 214 214 213 238 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.3 25.4 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 151 151 152 154 153 150 144 144 113 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 134 132 131 131 133 133 131 126 125 102 84 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 8 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 52 54 57 56 58 62 59 59 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 18 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -22 -24 -33 -29 -3 2 26 5 0 -22 -24 -15 200 MB DIV 12 38 2 4 14 22 46 39 35 2 34 46 34 LAND (KM) 540 577 605 595 591 526 441 460 381 339 480 378 234 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.7 27.7 29.5 31.6 33.9 36.2 39.4 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 71.0 72.0 72.8 73.6 74.8 75.7 76.0 75.0 72.7 70.4 67.1 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 7 6 7 10 13 15 18 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 49 39 40 41 45 54 56 46 50 31 33 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 28. 29. 33. 32. 29. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY