* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 33 31 27 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 15 24 27 22 21 18 18 9 22 SHEAR DIR 250 257 250 238 236 253 255 265 285 300 316 283 263 SST (C) 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.8 22.4 22.0 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 104 95 91 87 82 80 78 79 81 82 84 84 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 63 61 49 41 36 35 35 33 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 6 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 14 6 -17 -7 -20 -15 -36 -33 -43 -48 -31 200 MB DIV 29 10 25 9 9 30 0 -15 -24 -27 -14 -39 -17 LAND (KM) 1145 1166 1204 1242 1290 1313 1318 1389 1453 1530 1618 1685 1744 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.5 26.0 27.4 27.6 26.9 26.8 26.1 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.7 126.6 127.4 129.7 131.3 132.4 132.6 133.5 134.0 134.6 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 11 7 3 3 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -26. -36. -46. -52. -60. -61. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY