* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 17 21 25 26 24 25 29 32 45 42 SHEAR DIR 266 226 228 232 242 240 254 257 277 275 272 257 252 SST (C) 24.3 23.5 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 106 98 93 89 85 81 78 78 81 81 83 86 85 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 67 63 60 59 44 40 35 35 32 34 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 6 -14 -18 -15 -27 -28 -40 -31 -7 20 14 200 MB DIV 18 42 31 5 13 11 -12 -16 -28 -27 -16 -16 -2 LAND (KM) 1149 1187 1238 1303 1327 1301 1332 1385 1464 1519 1532 1625 1595 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.4 128.5 130.0 131.0 131.9 133.1 134.1 135.1 136.7 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 11 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -16. -26. -39. -50. -60. -68. -76. -81. -83. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY