* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952009 08/27/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 34 42 47 48 45 45 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 34 42 47 48 45 45 45 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 31 31 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 8 1 4 7 14 16 19 19 19 11 SHEAR DIR 346 314 336 332 28 231 233 250 268 269 268 272 235 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 147 147 146 145 145 145 146 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 64 65 63 62 61 54 59 61 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -6 -8 -10 10 6 13 5 0 11 4 25 200 MB DIV 59 55 42 32 53 71 84 89 64 65 50 67 134 LAND (KM) 1699 1744 1792 1833 1876 1929 1996 2049 2104 2174 2230 2257 2231 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.4 174.2 174.9 175.5 176.4 177.4 178.2 179.0 179.9 180.7 181.2 181.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 97 107 103 91 86 85 87 88 86 79 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 28. 28. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952009 INVEST 08/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952009 INVEST 08/27/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY