* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/27/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 19 25 28 30 28 26 28 32 37 43 42 54 SHEAR DIR 249 249 246 245 246 254 258 275 274 268 253 249 267 SST (C) 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 89 85 83 81 79 78 78 79 80 82 84 86 87 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -54.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 47 42 32 28 29 25 26 22 31 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -40 -49 -51 -36 -36 -17 -21 -17 8 7 -18 -30 200 MB DIV 20 -1 6 4 24 -4 -20 -21 -21 -15 -16 6 -4 LAND (KM) 1192 1240 1220 1206 1202 1230 1310 1384 1464 1471 1531 1621 1560 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.2 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.1 127.9 128.7 129.5 130.7 131.9 132.9 133.8 134.7 135.6 137.1 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -22. -30. -36. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -31. -40. -52. -61. -69. -76. -81. -83. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/27/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/27/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY