* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 27 27 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 27 27 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 17 19 21 18 25 15 18 22 22 15 14 SHEAR DIR 337 324 310 315 317 332 342 327 293 274 271 273 267 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 139 139 141 142 143 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 39 39 39 41 40 42 44 44 46 50 52 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 57 58 52 45 25 6 -12 -26 -38 -42 -50 -33 200 MB DIV 7 21 -2 -2 -36 -21 -12 -13 -3 0 9 7 61 LAND (KM) 556 516 496 501 531 622 688 734 852 992 1151 1289 1450 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.5 156.4 157.5 158.5 160.4 162.5 164.4 166.4 168.3 170.2 171.8 173.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 51 20 20 21 23 60 59 26 23 45 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY