* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 35 37 37 36 37 39 42 40 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 35 37 37 36 37 39 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 32 32 31 31 31 32 34 37 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 6 12 21 20 24 22 21 14 17 27 SHEAR DIR 221 245 273 231 230 259 276 279 285 286 271 246 199 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 147 146 146 146 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 56 56 57 60 59 64 65 71 71 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 18 27 28 20 18 9 39 23 30 70 82 71 200 MB DIV 67 57 64 62 58 54 57 66 73 178 221 193 110 LAND (KM) 1779 1824 1870 1911 1954 2054 2153 2255 2308 2327 2187 1962 2026 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.8 21.6 24.8 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 174.7 175.4 176.0 176.6 177.2 178.5 179.8 181.0 181.7 182.1 181.0 178.8 178.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 7 15 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 101 93 88 85 82 85 89 84 79 66 54 36 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. 14. 17. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY