* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 54 54 53 52 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 54 54 53 52 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 36 39 42 44 46 46 47 SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 5 9 9 11 8 10 4 6 7 8 SHEAR DIR 90 155 155 189 205 189 165 165 206 262 195 220 194 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 149 148 143 139 133 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 65 65 60 61 52 47 47 44 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 45 41 47 43 59 63 84 79 81 69 57 200 MB DIV 57 40 49 68 74 59 48 47 48 38 -6 32 3 LAND (KM) 1477 1502 1536 1556 1581 1611 1591 1576 1552 1534 1553 1598 1656 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.2 121.5 122.4 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.8 126.0 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 45 46 46 43 41 30 12 7 4 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 29. 29. 28. 27. 23. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY