* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 46 45 44 42 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 46 45 44 42 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 36 38 38 38 37 37 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 7 6 9 6 12 11 7 11 4 8 SHEAR DIR 117 104 170 192 202 173 192 181 225 234 256 240 231 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 149 148 145 141 136 132 128 125 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 65 64 60 57 52 49 47 44 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 41 47 43 48 49 64 64 64 58 51 32 200 MB DIV 29 37 59 58 66 49 50 52 57 27 3 26 9 LAND (KM) 1532 1560 1595 1623 1653 1658 1655 1621 1602 1597 1600 1626 1682 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.8 119.8 120.6 121.3 122.5 123.4 123.9 124.4 125.0 125.8 126.9 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 45 43 39 43 34 13 9 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY