* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/28/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 61 67 73 77 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 61 67 73 77 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 54 59 66 76 85 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 7 6 4 6 6 4 1 5 2 3 SHEAR DIR 47 23 43 12 81 235 272 244 269 2 61 23 51 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 128 129 130 126 123 121 120 121 122 123 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 128 128 129 123 117 113 111 111 112 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 59 56 53 52 50 46 48 43 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 95 97 90 88 81 62 39 23 12 4 -11 -14 -21 200 MB DIV 59 88 54 49 66 40 29 5 -14 -33 -30 -38 -4 LAND (KM) 1606 1604 1612 1565 1490 1396 1315 1270 1238 1212 1175 1161 1144 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.1 38.2 39.4 40.6 42.8 44.9 46.4 47.7 48.7 49.7 50.6 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 12 13 12 12 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 13 14 13 12 11 12 16 24 28 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 36. 42. 48. 52. 56. 58. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY