* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/29/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 33 38 43 52 53 53 52 47 44 38 33 V (KT) LAND 30 30 33 38 43 40 33 36 35 30 27 21 16 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 30 28 29 30 33 37 SHEAR (KT) 24 22 29 35 32 49 55 61 55 55 37 18 9 SHEAR DIR 233 219 228 244 243 255 263 248 249 265 260 257 211 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.2 24.4 19.2 19.5 14.8 11.6 12.2 10.9 12.5 14.4 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 132 107 83 83 73 69 70 69 71 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 122 99 78 77 70 67 67 67 68 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -52.9 -51.9 -50.8 -48.6 -47.1 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 64 60 61 70 69 60 53 51 57 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 15 17 22 20 23 27 27 26 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 4 42 68 96 80 35 51 107 163 214 270 291 293 200 MB DIV 54 95 121 119 115 100 91 56 55 50 58 62 74 LAND (KM) 238 192 249 206 221 15 -48 396 883 1401 1057 552 259 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 35.2 37.3 39.8 42.2 46.1 48.9 51.0 52.4 53.4 54.2 55.4 57.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 73.9 72.6 70.2 67.8 61.7 55.1 48.6 41.9 34.4 26.2 18.2 10.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 24 27 31 30 28 25 22 23 24 24 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 51 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 12. 5. -2. -7. -10. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 6. 10. 9. 9. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 8. 13. 22. 23. 23. 22. 17. 14. 8. 3. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/29/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/29/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY