* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 32 36 45 50 61 68 76 81 85 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 32 36 45 50 61 68 76 81 85 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 59 70 83 93 98 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 3 4 3 5 1 2 2 5 8 8 SHEAR DIR 49 47 77 169 344 168 264 129 18 85 53 150 191 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 131 129 126 126 129 133 135 138 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 131 127 122 120 122 125 126 128 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 55 54 46 46 44 45 41 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 93 74 69 63 52 27 4 -3 -19 -21 -37 -31 -32 200 MB DIV 32 52 45 35 22 18 1 11 -14 -10 0 16 3 LAND (KM) 1350 1275 1215 1169 1124 1086 1060 1051 920 826 744 705 670 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.0 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 42.5 43.8 45.1 46.3 48.6 50.5 52.2 53.8 55.0 56.3 57.4 58.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 22 23 20 30 41 50 57 62 64 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 7. 11. 20. 25. 36. 43. 51. 56. 60. 60. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY