* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142009 08/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 49 49 48 48 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 49 49 48 48 45 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 46 48 52 53 51 49 48 46 44 41 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 10 12 11 6 4 2 7 4 14 13 SHEAR DIR 124 115 136 140 141 172 235 215 317 151 123 138 137 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 146 145 141 136 132 128 125 120 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 54 53 50 46 42 39 34 27 27 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 37 32 35 52 52 51 48 47 10 7 -9 200 MB DIV 23 1 -7 -15 18 18 15 -2 17 12 16 6 12 LAND (KM) 1688 1670 1655 1620 1586 1505 1421 1372 1381 1419 1488 1543 1584 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.4 122.7 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.9 123.4 124.4 125.9 126.8 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 41 40 36 31 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. 10. 6. 3. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 FOURTEEN 08/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 FOURTEEN 08/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY