* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/30/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 104 108 112 113 110 104 93 82 67 53 41 V (KT) LAND 95 99 104 108 112 113 110 104 93 82 67 53 41 V (KT) LGE mod 95 98 99 101 102 102 99 93 84 71 56 43 33 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 2 2 8 5 4 10 16 20 23 34 SHEAR DIR 167 209 264 310 228 279 293 253 240 256 271 259 248 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.1 28.0 26.3 24.2 22.2 21.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 167 165 156 144 126 103 83 75 80 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 71 71 69 66 64 58 56 53 46 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 29 22 22 23 7 12 -8 -7 -21 -9 0 200 MB DIV 86 74 62 63 49 21 28 45 3 -2 3 8 -12 LAND (KM) 358 366 361 363 379 396 323 219 198 138 194 229 321 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.5 20.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 25.2 25.9 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.2 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.9 110.3 111.5 112.5 113.5 114.5 116.1 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 66 64 55 47 47 34 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -8. -15. -24. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 18. 15. 9. -2. -13. -28. -42. -54. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY