* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 08/30/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 47 47 44 42 40 40 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 47 47 44 42 40 40 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 51 51 50 47 44 42 41 39 36 33 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 15 11 5 4 4 10 11 15 14 12 SHEAR DIR 125 143 149 158 166 182 207 68 141 130 132 94 143 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 143 140 137 136 136 135 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 53 50 44 43 42 43 45 50 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 37 46 53 41 48 41 47 45 48 16 46 200 MB DIV -6 -13 9 14 10 6 -2 11 -2 4 29 16 19 LAND (KM) 1590 1552 1514 1465 1417 1316 1230 1145 1061 984 915 877 869 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.0 121.9 121.8 121.6 121.0 120.6 120.1 119.5 119.0 118.6 118.3 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 39 35 30 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY