* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 127 129 128 123 114 106 92 79 64 49 36 V (KT) LAND 115 123 127 129 128 123 114 106 81 77 52 45 32 V (KT) LGE mod 115 121 123 123 120 113 106 97 77 74 52 45 33 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 5 10 8 6 7 17 17 26 26 31 SHEAR DIR 191 252 268 243 252 263 256 229 260 261 284 266 267 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.6 28.9 27.8 26.7 25.4 23.3 21.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 167 166 161 154 142 130 116 93 71 58 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 7 5 6 3 4 1 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 70 70 66 64 63 59 57 53 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 19 19 18 14 -8 6 -17 -13 -17 0 27 200 MB DIV 77 67 68 57 22 32 32 62 -15 -9 -7 -14 4 LAND (KM) 376 359 352 349 354 375 158 80 -11 31 -24 8 73 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.6 21.5 23.3 24.9 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.2 109.2 110.3 111.3 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.4 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 65 56 47 47 39 26 14 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -15. -23. -32. -40. -49. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 10. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 13. 8. -1. -9. -23. -36. -51. -66. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING