* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 08/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 35 34 35 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 35 34 35 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 35 33 31 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 9 6 4 2 8 9 16 6 10 7 SHEAR DIR 153 152 164 179 207 236 324 119 157 134 112 110 158 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 142 141 139 138 136 136 135 133 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 50 48 44 41 44 43 47 48 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 41 46 44 42 55 59 47 46 18 13 11 200 MB DIV -17 11 16 12 13 -2 -1 9 2 -2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1522 1474 1427 1372 1317 1225 1116 1023 938 892 877 854 831 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 121.7 121.5 121.2 120.9 120.3 119.7 119.2 118.7 118.4 118.3 118.1 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 32 22 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY